The property market in southeast Queensland is experiencing a significant shift, with buyers finally gaining the upper hand after a prolonged real estate boom. This shift is evident in the national data, where June saw the largest monthly drop in home values in over three years, according to Cotality. Sydney and Melbourne led the decline, while Brisbane, which had seen a 75% growth in five years, experienced a slowdown in value growth.
This change has been driven by a combination of factors, including tax changes and interest rate rises. The federal budget's shake-up to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts has given buyers more choice and negotiating power. As a result, the number of properties listed for sale in Brisbane has increased by almost 25% in the past four weeks, indicating a shift in market dynamics.
However, the market is still in a holding pattern, with a disconnect between the prices sellers are hoping for and what buyers are willing to pay. This is particularly evident in the auction clearance rates, which remain lower than the previous year. The fear of price declines is also affecting buyer confidence, with many buyers reluctant to enter the market.
The impact of these changes is being felt across the region, with the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast experiencing a slowdown in growth. In regional Queensland, the Darling Downs has seen the highest growth in value in 12 months, but even there, the market is losing momentum. Bundaberg, on the other hand, has seen limited impact due to continuing interstate migration from Sydney and Melbourne.
Despite these challenges, the demand for property in Queensland remains strong, with the Real Estate Institute of Queensland's Antonia Mercorella attributing this to the pull from other states. However, the industry is eagerly awaiting the next quarterly data to assess the impact of the federal budget changes more clearly.
Looking ahead, the market is likely to continue its down phase, with housing values either drifting lower or holding steady until interest rates start to come down. This shift in the market dynamics is a significant development for buyers, who are now in a stronger position and can negotiate better terms. For those like Nicole Pengilly, who had to move multiple times due to landlords selling and rent rises, this shift is a welcome change, offering the prospect of settling in a place they own and never having to move again.
